tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-600798209403025527.post3767495678012627920..comments2023-04-29T14:59:44.858+01:00Comments on Sigma Options: Charting Support & Resistance on Futures... HmmmmmUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-600798209403025527.post-701959551422902242007-06-29T17:41:00.000+01:002007-06-29T17:41:00.000+01:00"How do you account for weather risk etc in the so..."How do you account for weather risk etc in the softs, coffee, corn, wheat etc. in a chart?"<BR/><BR/>You can't. While not pretending to understand all the fundamentals, I do try to follow whats happening fundamentally via news and commodities specific message boards. One can often get early warning of weather details etc as many growers post the conditions in their area.<BR/><BR/>That said. Announcements can gave similar effects as the stock market. Today is a prime example. Bullish news was released concerning soybean acreages and kapow! A huge gap up. <BR/><BR/>Nobody saw that coming. Cotton gapped up on news as well.<BR/><BR/>It's just part of trading anything really. Where the danger lies is when folks get carried away with trading on margin and over leverage themselves.Waynehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14956625376991346003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-600798209403025527.post-85379801302260604562007-06-29T17:02:00.000+01:002007-06-29T17:02:00.000+01:00wal,Bubblevision should carry a govermental wealth...wal,<BR/><BR/>Bubblevision should carry a govermental wealth warning, but like most things that you shouldn't do, you watch regardless.<BR/><BR/>How do you account for weather risk etc in the softs, coffee, corn, wheat etc. in a chart?<BR/><BR/>Or would you undertake additional analysis to complement a chart based analysis.<BR/><BR/>Commodity fundamentals if you will.<BR/><BR/>SBUX for example is struggling currently with costs based on an unhedged exposure to milk.<BR/><BR/>Corn & ethanol spring to mind.<BR/><BR/>jog on<BR/>grantAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-600798209403025527.post-14931964540942855012007-06-29T16:43:00.000+01:002007-06-29T16:43:00.000+01:00Yes true, cost of carry is not a consideration in ...Yes true, cost of carry is not a consideration in risk/reward calcs, well negligible anyway.<BR/><BR/>It more the point that horizontal support and resistance can be regarded with a bit of initial suspicion when using them to base entries/exits on.<BR/><BR/>This phenominon(?) even catches BubbleVision out when reporting on commodities prices. When one spot contract rolls to the next, BubbleVision will report the price increase when all that has happened is the that there is difference in price due to the contango.<BR/><BR/>We shouldn't be surprised by that though. :)Waynehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14956625376991346003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-600798209403025527.post-43413551620785294802007-06-29T14:59:00.000+01:002007-06-29T14:59:00.000+01:00Ahhhh, the visual verification thingy is now gone,...Ahhhh, the visual verification thingy is now gone, so I can come and visit.<BR/><BR/>Time, with it's associated costs always add another wrinkle to the analysis.<BR/><BR/>However, unless the carrying costs are a significant % of your risk/return, which then may negate your trade, they are generally not a trade breaker as they are fairly consistent and can be calculated [allowed] for.<BR/><BR/>jog on<BR/>grantAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com