28 August 2007

WTF are "Normal Conditions" Uncle Ben?

Well I got a timely kick up the arse for not keeping up this blog, so an update from my cognitively biased point of view. (... and you think you're not? LOL)

Of course, in the intervening time I've had a fiddle with my blog template, as I do. And also of course, I've fucked everything up, as I do. LOL! So now I have to rebuild my blogroll and all the other shit I had in my sidebars. Anyway, I digress.

Interesting article at CNBCs site today... actually it wasn't interesting at all, more speculation of interest rate cuts and all is going to be OK nonsense. Read it here. The statement that caught my eye was this:

Bernanke and his central bank colleagues "expected a return to more normal market conditions," but they recognized that might not be the case, according to minutes of the closed-door meeting released on Tuesday.

I thought to myself: What the fuck are "more normal market conditions" then? Resumption of the bubble economy, the Goldilocks fairytale, the ridiculous discounting of risk?

Apart from the credit market problems as highlighted by the Cramer buffoon a couple of weeks ago, a 10% correction in the stock market every now and then is pretty much..... ummm, normal. What is abnormal is how easy it is, still, to get credit. at least in this country and the UK. It's abnormal that asset values are so fucking stretched (and don't give me the "stocks are cheap" bullshit; they aren't), particularly real estate.

I still don't think there will be a "crash". The goverments' (plural) willingness to intervene is all too apparent and obvious, that is unless something big-time happens. However I would be surprised to see a new high for a while.

Meanwile the stock market has provided a few nice short swing setups. That always make a bear happy.

2 comments:

Glen said...

I'm not sure what good lowering the rates are going to do anyway, as banks aren't prepared to lend to each other at the fed rate as it is now. Especially if there is out and out disbelief at the nominal value of each others collateral.

But it's always funny to see these "free marketeers" crack the shits when that oh so magical invisble hand isn't doing what they want it to do.

w.a.l. said...

Hey Glen,

Agree with you comments. As someone (can't remember who) said, Wall Street likes to privatize profits and socialize losses.

Lowering the interest rates may give the interest rate obsessed some impetus to jump into the market, (as it would be designed to do), but really, to me it signals one of two realities:

1/ The economy is becoming deflationary.

2/ The inflation monster will get out of control.

... perhaps both. (not concurrently of course)

I think it would be a really bad idea. BWTFDIK.