22 June 2009

Of Tribes And Markets

Many centuries ago, a great chief took his son on a journey across the great plain, over two great rivers, across the desert, through the forest whereupon he found a high place. He told his son to look as far as his eye could see and said:

Son, we are Carvetii, this is Carvetii country, and forever more the tribe was known as the Carvetii.

At about the same time another great chief took his son on a journey through a great forest, across two deserts, over a river and to the highest point for 100 miles. He told his son to look as far as his eye could see and said:

Son, we are Cantiaci, this is Cantiaci country, and forever more the tribe was known as the Cantiaci. (These are ancient Briton tribes in case you were wondering.)

Yet another great chief took his son on a great journey at the same time so many centuries ago. He led his son across three plains, across 14 deserts, paddled over 5 lakes, traversed 7 mountain ranges, through 3 forests, across another three deserts, another 2 rivers until he found a high place. He looked at his son and said:

Son, where the Fukawee, and forever more, that people were known as Fukawees.

Centuries later, I am wondering the same thing following the markets convolutions. VIX seems to be moribund, yet is higher than at most times before Sept 2008. Bubblevision boasts of green shoots and recessions ending, yet real world data still indicates death by a thousand cuts. Housing industry vested interests speak of a bottom, yet housing remains very expensive by any sensible vectors of value (here in the UK at least).

Worst of all, brokers shout BARGAIN BUY STOCKS from proverbial rooftops, yet reported earnings make them look expensive.

There is no doubt that the cash raining down in torrents from magical helicopters is having an effect; but where next?

The SP500 is rolling over and getting a bit of a shellacking today in particular. A simple profit taking retracement, or an end to a dead cat bounce? Will Armageddon part 2 start up after this intermission, or is it the next great bull run.

Look, all I want is to put on a nice delta neutral strategy with a nice wide profit zone and go and watch the tennis, supping Champagne, slurping strawberries and cream and watch Andy Murray disappoint the Brits again, as is the tradition. Alas, this market is making me nervous. I have no fear of adjusting, but being full of booze and around the corner at Wimbledon stadium, my mind wandering to fantasy as I watch the ladies play... or not, as the case may be, is just not conducive to high falutin option trading.

So I guess I'll stay home and watch it on TV...I can't get out of my driveway anyway now that The Championships have started anyway. It will have to be pizza and beer, rather than champagne, strawberries and cream.

1 comment:

Grinder said...

I don't think it's too much to ask. Especially after last years market hissy fit, a year or 2 of delta neutrals would suit me fine. I think our mutual comrade the VIX really wants to reside back to his historic lows but has been traumatised by last years events that it's a case of softly, softly, catchee monkey for now.