02 July 2009

I'm Buying

OK now that I'm in full conspiracy theory mode, my prediction for today is that GS and MS will have a busy day in the SP pits.

A comment in response to Marketwatch's pre-non farm payrolls numbers:

MarketWatch - why do you pass on this gobbledegook? You guys know as well as all of us that the U.S. government "statistics" are about as dependable as a 2 dollar watch.

...and there are dozens along the same lines.

The payroll numbers will be dreadful, but folk will suspect the government is lying and things are actually much worse (Noooo - who'd believe that?). Folks will realise the bobbleheads optimism is totally misplaced and flog all their stocks the market will open sharply down.

GS & MS will start buying with their ears pinned back for some mysterious account, the market will finish green, Goldilocks will make another cameo appearance, folks will be conned into believing all is well and a return to the upward grind will ensue.

Disclaimer: I'm short gamma on the indices with a little upside skew.

OK I've let my cynicism out for a run, back to normal programming shortly.

Update: As expected, the #s were woeful, now all I need for soothsayer status is for the SP500 to be green by day's end.


Anonymous said...

Good to see you back. I took you off my rss because of lack of posts. You are better than most option blogs.


Wayne said...

Thanks gg

I've got a few monkeys off my back now, so should be a bit more consistent with this now.

Cheers mate.