12 August 2009

Gold Doldrums

A few days ago I highlighted the rising implied volatility of gold options. That seems to have been the high for gold IV for now, as IVs have settled back to the high teens.

Nothing more than a short term IV spike which has been fairly typical.

Meanwhile, realized volatility remains low, much lower than IV but as discussed before, there are good reasons for this.

Gold seems to be rooted in the doldrums, but there is always that September seasonal tendency to look out for and then there is the inflation hedge argument... QE and all that.

My purely baseless guess is that gold dribbles along for a while; until it doesn't.

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