30 September 2009

Going Out On A Limb

No, I'm not embarking on a mission of McLean-esque spiritual discovery, but I am taking the unusual step of publicly calling a medium term top on stocks.

Actually, I don't give a rats, I'm delta neutral and really would love some sideways consolidation ( a top of sorts I guess). I'm really just about managing whatever this ludicrous market throws at me. I just think that if that rich mental map that we traders think we have is worth a cracker (probably not), this really "feels" like it wants a decent retracement.

The $64,000 question these days is - what constitutes a decent retracement? Dip buyers apparently are cashed up and are all over any divot, never mind actual dips.

Lots of sentiment indicators are screaming "complacency", none more so than that 20dma of the put/call index I keep pulling up in the hope of a guru-like market top call. It's still entrenched at around it's lowest level of at least the past three years.

As mentioned in an earlier post, this is a pretty blunt tool, but usually manages to bludgeon the market into some sort of pullback. Add to this the "October Meme" and I think there is a reasonable case for a little bearishness.

N.B. For amusement value only, there is no money riding on this.

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