07 September 2007

Jobs

So Wall Street economists were expecting ~+115,000 on the NFP number.

Really?

The building industry is hemorrhaging jobs from the great gaping hole in its aorta and I suspect there would be a few real estate broker sending CVs around at the moment too; and the NFP was a shock?
"It's a major shock to the market," said Peter Cardillo, chief market strategist at Avalon Partners. "If the job market continues to weaken, fears of a recession will continue to accelerate, calling into question corporate earnings."
You have to wonder about economists. I mean I have an interest in economics and though no formal degree, I would consider myself what would be termed here in Australia as a "bush economist". This is someone who basically has been fucked by not knowing about business cycles before and has learned to "sniff out" when things are starting to get out of whack.

We bush economists have been worried about sub-prime, stretched asset values and rampant malinvestment for a couple of years now while the smirking Wall Street assholes have been bullshitting on about Goldilocks economies.

We have also been wondering how long birth and death models and other such nonsense could disguise the real state of employment. When you get an actual drop of 4,000, it's time for folks to pull out their CVs and polish them up for a potential mass mail out.

But look and the bright side, it's another factor for Uncle Ben to justify a rate cut.

The logic goes: slowing economy => rate cut => bullish => market rally

Yep, Goldilocks rules... along with other fairytales

3 comments:

grant said...

WAL,

You're back, nice format.

Always interesting to put a face to material. I was curious as to what took you to the UK, now I understand.

jog on
grant

Wayne said...

Thanks Grant,

The job's not very high falutin, but got it through family connections and we wanted to spend some time over there anyway... and it's in the SW, not London, which was the clincher.

Cheers

grant said...

WAL

The current job may well be simply a "start" in the money management business, but post a good track record and who know's where that could end up.

London [where I'm from] needs to be avoided at all costs. Nice for a holiday, but hellish to live in.

jog on
grant