11 September 2007

What Are Gold & Oil Telling Us...

...if anything?

Well yeah, it's partly to do with the dollar doomage, but I think there is more to it than that. Both gold and oil are threatening, or threatening to threaten multi year highs. In the case of oil, all time highs.

First gold: There is the gold is money argument, so it's natural that gold will rise as the dollar tanks. I don't go along with that 100% but what I think matters nought. If enough folks with enough capital think so, it is so. Perception is reality. Add to that the speculative froth once the public gets onto the bandwagon and in the current environment we could see some real boomage here. To a certain extent, I think this could be starting to happen. The gold bugs are certainly starting to froth at the mouth on all the trading forums.

weekly continuous gold

In recent months it's been grinding sideways frustrating the crap out of all but option writers, but this move is starting to look fair dinkum.

On the the other hand, oil is threatening to take out its all time high. There are probably plenty of bullshit fundamentals to justify this, and if of an apocalyptic bent, one simply must be a crude oil bull.

weekly continuous west texas sweet crude

The $64,000,000 question is the future of the price of oil in the medium term, presuming the world economy goes into recession. It would be expected that a recession would lessen oil consumption and result in declining prices, sans any killer 'canes obliterating the Gulf of Mexico or similar.

Long term, you just have to be a bull.

I'm glad I have some rudimentary charting skills because the fundamentals are often too full of biases, bullshit, short term considerations and rigs getting blown over.

An all time high in pretty short shrift seems like a high probability in the near term.

Back to the question posed at the beginning. Is this trying to tell us something? Something other than the purely native fundamentals of these two commodities? If it is, I suppose it will be loud and clear in a relatively short space of time.

3 comments:

grant said...

Wayne,

In respect to gold, part of the answer lies in the burgeoning credit crisis.

Print & spend may be the only answer to stem the short-term crisis, which again leads towards an inflationary environment.

As to oil, medium term, 5-10yrs, I'm a bull.

jog on
grant

The ASX Gorilla said...

"I'm glad I have some rudimentary charting skills because the fundamentals are often too full of biases, bullshit, short term considerations and rigs getting blown over. "

ROTFLMAO! :)

Wayne said...

Grant,

"Print & spend may be the only answer to stem the short-term crisis, which again leads towards an inflationary environment."

I'm afraid you might be right there. Savers (AKA the financially responsible) are going to take it up the arse... again. :-(

G,

I least I get a laugh, even if it's all BS :-)))

I've added a photograph, just for fun.

Cheers Guys