13 July 2009

Credit Spread Nonsense

In keeping with my current fetish for trying to bust a few nonsensical myths and mistruths with premium collection strategies, I guess I've turned my attention to credit spreads.

Look! Credit spreads are a good strategy, one good strategy, one of any number of good strategies. I use them when I think they are the right strategy to use. What makes me lose the will to live is the bullshit that emanates from ersatz experts and course spruikers.

N.B. I have nothing against education courses at all. There are a few good ones I'll never criticize, but they are outnumbered by some truly odious and dangerous programs inflicted on innocent neophyte option traders... usually at vast expense.

To subject (sent via email so unable to attribute) of my ire today, which resulted in a distinctly forehead shaped dent in my desk, behold:

The beauty of option trading is that it opens up a lot of alternative ways building wealth from the stock market. Recent events have shown that the "buy-and-hold" approach to stock trading carries substantial risk. With a volatile market, a safe "in-and-out" approach is much more desirable. Of all the option trading strategies available, trading credit spreads is by far the safest and simplest method. It has a risk profile significantly lower than stock trading, and it offers much better profit than any type of stock trading strategy around.

Selling credit spreads takes advantage of the fact that the value of any option declines as the expiry date of the option approaches. It does this particularly fast during the last 30 days of the life of the option. It has been said that 90% of option buyers lose their money. This means that those who sold the options to those unfortunate buyers win 90% of the time!

What are the advantages of credit spread trading?
  • It is short term - trades are typically less than 30 days in duration, and take advantage of short term trends in the market;
  • It is low risk - trades have a better than 90% of success - always! You know exactly what the risk, return and profit will be before you enter a trade - there is no guess work.
  • Profit is up front - a trader gets his profit immediately, and only needs to protect that profit for a short period;
  • Market fluctuations are mostly irrelevant. The market can continue its trend, stagnate, or even turn against you to a certain extent, and your profit is completely safe and untouchable.
  • Simple technical analysis - other options trading strategies (and stock trading) require intense fundamental and technical analysis, significant understanding of the market, and the ability to "beat the news". Selling Credit spreads needs a very simple trend analysis procedure, which should not take longer than 10 minutes a day, and the ability to plan for upcoming events such as earnings reports.
  • Time spent in monitoring the trade is very low;
  • Profits range between 5% and 20% per month, depending on how actively the spreads are traded. Compounded, this leads to significant growth in a profile. Starting with $1,000 and gaining a steady but sure 15% per month, you can get your first million dollars in four years, without deductions for ulcer treatment.
What do you need in order to start building wealth by selling credit spreads?
you need an account with an options trading broker such as Thinkorswim or OptionsXpress.
you need a minimum balance of $1,000, in order to cover margin requirements for selling credit spreads.
you need to be able to identify a trend in the market and in your chosen stock.
you need to be able to look ahead for predictable events such as earning reports and dividend payments.
you need about 15 minutes per week.
...and that's it!
You do not need nuclear physics degree in fundamental and technical analysis; you do not need to spend hours pouring over graphs and indicators; you do not need to go bald, get an ulcer or a heart condition; and you definitely do not need to pander to your obsessive compulsion to constantly monitor your trade, making fiddly adjustments on the way!

Selling credit spreads is an excellent method for those who are committed to a safe, steady approach to building wealth.

I sell credit spreads every month, and even when a very few trades have gone against me, I still build an average 15-20% growth on my portfolio each month.

Hallelujah! The Holy Grail found! Gold, Frankincense and Myrrh for all! If your still with me, indulge me in a point by point fisking:

The beauty of option trading is that it opens up a lot of alternative ways building wealth from the stock market.

A good start for the writer here, this is exactly the reason we option traders trade options rather than the underlying stocks. Unfortunately, it's all downhill from here.
Recent events have shown that the "buy-and-hold" approach to stock trading carries substantial risk.

Well, yes, but wait for the rest.

With a volatile market, a safe "in-and-out" approach is much more desirable.

Why is it more desirable? It might be for the author and it might be for me, but it might be the antithesis of what is desirable for somebody else, depending on innumerable factors.

Of all the option trading strategies available, trading credit spreads is by far the safest and simplest method.

How so? Simplest? So a two legged strategy is simpler than a simple bought option? Safest? How does he/she quantify safe? Considering that one can put their entire capital at risk in one trade, with some probabilty of a maximum loss, I violently disagree. Most strategies are safe if used safely, i.e. with proper position sizing. All strategies, including credit spreads, are unsafe if used with too much size/leverage.

It has a risk profile significantly lower than stock trading, and it offers much better profit than any type of stock trading strategy around.

This is about the point where my forehead first hit my desk with some velocity. Without going into mathematics and payoff diagrams, this is a truly pukeworthy statement. Much better profit? Credit spreads offer a "different" risk/reward/probability profile which may be better in certain circumstances but not others. Stock going sideways? Sure, give me a credit spread or related strategy. Stock about to go to the moon? I'll take the stock, or perhaps some call options thanks.

Selling credit spreads takes advantage of the fact that the value of any option declines as the expiry date of the option approaches. It does this particularly fast during the last 30 days of the life of the option.

This person has obviously never heard of delta/gamma. True, extrinsic value, in simplistic terms, declines, but what about intrinsic value? I want to ask this person if he/she thinks the value of the put option he/she just sold is going to be worth less if $10 in the money at expiry.

It has been said that 90% of option buyers lose their money. This means that those who sold the options to those unfortunate buyers win 90% of the time!

Just disingenuous bullshit. Even the standard myth only says 80%. The truth is somewhat different and more complex. For another post maybe.

It is short term - trades are typically less than 30 days in duration, and take advantage of short term trends in the market;

Yes short term, but the preceding statement says this person is trading OTM credit spreads. If I want to trade short term trends, I'll pick an entirely different strategy. OTM Credit spreads are best for non-trends or slow trends. If you're trying to trade a trend and still want a vertical spread, go an ATM debit spread.

It is low risk - trades have a better than 90% of success - always! You know exactly what the risk, return and profit will be before you enter a trade - there is no guess work.

Well I don't know about low risk, there is a higher probability, but also a very low reward compared to the outright risk. Again that's OK, if it suits your view. But a credit spread constructed with 90% theoretical probability is going to be extremely skinny on the nett credit. As far as "always", a truly risible statement.

Profit is up front - a trader gets his profit immediately, and only needs to protect that profit for a short period;

Oh brother!! The old credit is better than a debit fallacy. I wonder if this person ever tried to spend that up front profit? I wonder if he/she ever looked at their margin statement. I think these are best constructed as credit spread, but for completely different reasons than the up front credit. The credit is *irrelevent*. It is the positive theta one is trying to trade here while hoping not to get crunched by the other greeks. Positive theta, AKA premium collection, can still be acheived with an initial debit.

Market fluctuations are mostly irrelevant. The market can continue its trend, stagnate, or even turn against you to a certain extent, and your profit is completely safe and untouchable.

This one is kind of half true. Provided that the underlying doesn't close ITM on the sold option, you keep the credit. In the intervening period however, you can be deep in a hole if the stock is moving against you. The profit is most certainly not safe as you are then in a position of hope. An exit or adjustment is going to cost.

Simple technical analysis - other options trading strategies (and stock trading) require intense fundamental and technical analysis, significant understanding of the market, and the ability to "beat the news". Selling Credit spreads needs a very simple trend analysis procedure, which should not take longer than 10 minutes a day, and the ability to plan for upcoming events such as earnings reports.

What can I say.... this is just nonsense. A simple approach may work, indeed it does. But a simple laissez faire TA approach is not going to give you 90% probability spreads.

Profits range between 5% and 20% per month, depending on how actively the spreads are traded. Compounded, this leads to significant growth in a profile. Starting with $1,000 and gaining a steady but sure 15% per month, you can get your first million dollars in four years, without deductions for ulcer treatment.

[sigh] The BS just doesn't stop! I'm weary, I've had enough of this. Maybe I'll continue this once I've recovered from concussion


7 comments:

Mark Wolfinger said...

With all the claims being made, it amazes me that anyone would expect to find a client so gullible as to believe this guy is making at least 15% per month.

At that rate, $1,000 grows to move than $4 million in five years. And that's assuming the low end of 15%.

No one could possibly believe that.

Wayne said...

Mark,

You'd be surprised what people believe. I used to live in Australia and these sorts of claims are quite common from spuikers down there.

They pack them in at those $3,000 weekend seminars. One bloke is flogging a DVD on credit spreads (with similar claims to this guy) for $5,000!!!!.

The same guy is selling a week long course in day trading options for $20,000 would you believe? Just outright maximum gall and the hide of a rhino.

There is no shortage of suckers willing to believe in the Holy Grail either.

It just beggars belief!

Cheers

Dean said...

As Mark said the 15-20% per month claim was ludicrous.
Your post made me paranoid about a post of mine on debit spreads. It is written in very spruiking language for me. If you get a chance I'd appreciate your feedback on it. Man oh man I hope I'm not ersatz (great word Wayne), but know I pale in comparison to many options experts.
Though I did just re-read a Ken Trester book, which I once enjoyed and now found to be a pile of doodoo, with many mis-truths.
First of two parts http://www.fusioninvesting.com/2008/03/day-six-ten-of-the-biggest-mistakes-in-option-trading/

P.S. I bet he is actually building 15-20% on his portfolio per month, but from the poor sods he's sucking in rather than from trading.

Wayne said...

Hi Dean,

Like I try to try to say as often as I remember, there are no good or bad strategies, only strategies that suit your goals and view. Risk should be measured by the greeks.

What you have there is an "OTM" debit spread. The stock has to move a long way for maximum profit at expiry, but the greeks are somewhat "tamed" for a time in the Leap spread.

Depending on time till expiry and vols, what you have is "almost" a straight out delta bet. It is only as time grinds on and later on in the life of the spread are the greeks going to start working for you or against you in a significant way.

Nothing wrong with that at all, if it suits what you're trying to achieve.

Re Piles of DooDoo: It's a bit of a shame that experience is what reveals the fraud. Salesmanship is substituted for honesty and a lot of these myths become a bit of a meme. I liked your post on covered calls/naked puts in that series of articles.

Cheers
Wayne

Wayne said...

"At that rate, $1,000 grows to move than $4 million in five years. And that's assuming the low end of 15%."

Mark,

Although the compounding argument has it's problems (because of eventual liquidity contraints etc), it's a valid one.

Imagine starting with a 250k bank. That turns into a billion.

Dean said...

Hi Wayne, thanks for taking a look and being so gentle on me as well.
there are no good or bad strategies, only strategies that suit your goals and view Excellent advice. I'd add any strategy can be bad with a poor implementation. Umm might need to work on the wording of that.

All the best and thanks again
Dean

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