09 October 2009

Guru S&P500 Prognostications

In the absence of anything notable to report re my current obsession with gold, I'll have a look today at my guru call from Sept 30. (N.B. all the guru stuff is tongue in cheek and a bit of self derogation.) as you will recall I Went Out On A Limb and called a medium term top on the S&P500.

Well the bulls are putting that call under some serious pressure after some smugness inducing down days immediately succeeding my call. As of now, the yearly highs still have not been taken out, so I haven't cancelled my guru robe order just yet. I'm speculating on a double top and that divergence (for whatever that is worth) in the MACD does its freakin' job of psyching traders into a sell-off.

The 20day MA of the put call ratio I keep posting in the hope someone takes notice, is still highlighting extreme complacency.

So I'm sticking to my guns for now. Still no money on the outcome here, just managing a delta neutral trade. That means that don't want be toooooo right, sideways consolidation would be good.

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